To increase the clinical applicability of the prognostic models, we used the parsimonious models to determine personalized risk probabilities for progression to any-cause dementia (age, sex, MMSE and plasma GFAP or when available age, sex, MMSE and plasma pTau217) and AD-dementia (age, sex, MMSE, plasma GFAP and plasma pTau181). Here, GFAP is linked to Alzheimer disease.