Baseline levels of CSF NfL were higher in CH participants who converted to CDR ≥ 0.5 over 6 years (p = 0.045) and the risk of conversion to CDR ≥ 0.5 was predicted (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, CI 1.03–2.48, p = 0.038). Here, NEFL is linked to cyclic hematopoiesis.