Baseline CSF biomarkers (amyloid beta (Aβ) 1–42, Aβ42/40, Tau, and pTau181), interpreted according to the ES, were used to estimate time to progression from the MCI stage of AD to ADD, conditional on age, gender, APOE ε4 genotype, and Mini Mental State Examination score in 144 MCI subjects, using the Extended Cox Model; the subjects were followed-up until they developed dementia or until they had been cognitively stable for at least 2 years. The gene discussed is APOE; the disease is dementia.