The occurrence of overt heart failure or death due to progressive heart failure were best predicted by NYHA class (AUC 0.945, p<0.001, CI 0.898–0.992), hArg levels (AUC 0.911, p<0.001, CI 0.850–0.971) and NT-proBNP levels (AUC 0.877, p<0.001, CI 0.791–0.962), respectively. The gene discussed is NPPB; the disease is heart failure.