CD4 and infection: The number of new infections among MSM increased by 2.5% per year (95% CI 1.0%-4.0%) based on the stratified extrapolation approach (2008: 22,600 infections, 95% CI 19,400-25,800; 2013: 24,700 infections, 95% CI 21,200-28,200), but the CD4 model (EAPC −1.8%, 95% CI −3.0% to −0.5%; 2008: 27,400, 95% CI 26,500-28,200; 2013: 24,600, 95% CI 22,700-26,500) and Bayesian hierarchical model (EAPC −2.5%, 95% CI −2.9% to −2.1%; 2008: 25,700 infections, 95% CI 24,000-27,700; 2013: 22,800 infections, 95% CI 19,000-26,800) both indicated a decrease in HIV incidence (Figure 3).