CD4 and infection: Incidence decreased by 3.5% (95% CI −4.6% to −2.4%) per year based on the CD4 model (2008: 35,600 infections, 95% CI 34,500-36,600; 2013: 29,600 infections, 95% CI 27,500-31,700), and by 1.5% (95% CI −1.9% to −1.2%) based on the Bayesian hierarchical model (2008: 31,500 infections, 95% CI 28,200-33,900; 2013: 28,900 infections, 95% CI 22,100-33,400).