CD4 and HIV infectious disease: If implementing early ART initiation within the current care continuum, we estimated 1,050,000 new HIV infections (95% 706,000–1,729,000) and 883,000 AIDS-related deaths (610,000–1,300,000) over two decades, or 18 and 9% reductions (respectively) compared to ART initiation at CD4 ≤350 cells/mm3.