Individually, low adiponectin, high A-FABP, TNF-α R2 (a surrogate marker of TNF-α), IL-6 or hsCRP at baseline was independently predictive of 5-year diabetes risk in this cohort, after adjustment for nine conventional risk factors, including age, sex, family history of diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity, hypertension, waist circumference, fasting glucose and dyslipidaemia. The gene discussed is TNF; the disease is diabetes mellitus.