Biological replication in an independent test set of 58 lung samples confirmed the altered expression of ten genes with increasing COPD severity, with eight of these genes (NNMT, THBS1, HLA-DPB1, IGHD, ETS2, ELF1, PTGDS and CYRBD1) being differentially expressed by greater than 1.8 fold between mild and moderate COPD, identifying these as candidate determinants of COPD severity. The gene discussed is ELF1; the disease is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.